Okay, I’m starting to get that feeling again - akin to the one I got last year during the NFL playoffs, when it suddenly became clear to me that the Colts were going to win both the AFC title game and the World Championship Of All Football. This moment of clarity - this vision, if you will - came to me at some point after the Colts beat the Ravens in the Saturday divisional game, but before the Patriots beat the Chargers in the Sunday divisional game.
I knew in my heart that the Patriots would beat the Chargers in that divisional game, that the Colts would then beat the Patriots a week later in the AFC title game (in the Hoosier Dome), and that the Colts would then beat whichever team won the Super Bowl Runners-Up Trophy (commonly known as the NFC title game).
There was no basis in fact or reason for this feeling - but I was sure of it, and it wound up happening. I go back and forth on whether or not I really believe that the Colts lucked their way to the Lombardi Trophy last season. It’s true that luck plays a part in big success in sports - ask any Indiana basketball fan about the 2002 Final Four run - but it might well have been their time, too.
Might it be their time again this year? I have not for one second believed that during this football season. Not for one second - although that lack of belief had nothing to do with the Colts themselves and everything to do with the Patriots. I believed going into the season that the Patriots would run riot over the league and basically walk to their fourth Super Bowl in seven years.
But we’re through the wild card games; the divisonal round is this weekend; and the matchups are interesting, if you’re a little bit superstitious - and if you’re paying attention. Most of the sports fan who wander into the Blog-O-Rama do pay attention, but I don’t know that quite so many of them go in for the same kind of superstitious sport dreck that I go in for.
I’m only going to talk about the AFC, though. I got much love for the indestructible Brett Favre because he loves to play the game and plays it so well, and much love for NYG (even if they are coached by Tom Coughlin) because of what a great job they have done this season sans the services of Tiki Barber; and the Seahawks and Cowboys are okay, too. But as a group, they don’t hold a candle to the Patriots, Colts, Jaguars, and Chargers.
So here’s what I’m thinking. The Colts have the Chargers at the Hoosier Dome, in what will likely be the last game ever played in the Hoosier Dome. It’s a revenge game, because the Colts lost in San Diego earlier in the year in what might have been the ugliest game this Colts team has ever played. If not for (insert any of a huge number of things that went wrong), then the Colts win that game. They played as poorly as they could possibly play, and still only lost by two, on the road, to a team that didn’t look very good back then but looks awfully good now.
Will the Colts repeat their performance from earlier in the season? No. Will they obliterate the Chargers? Not likely, but a greater possibility than the six-pick, two-shank game they played previously. Will they win the game? I think so. I’m not completely convinced...but I’m close. These guys do make mistakes, but they generally do a very good job of learning from those mistakes - and there’s a potential rematch with the Patriots in the offing if they can get past the Chargers. They won’t be looking ahead to New England - or at least won’t say so publicly if they are - but they will know it’s a possibility, and they’ll want it. They’ll want that rematch so badly that that alone will give them the fire to beat San Diego.
Now to the Patriots and Jaguars. The Patriots have stumbled three times this season - Colts, Eagles, Giants - but have not fallen. They say you can’t go 16-0 in the modern NFL, but New England did. They also say that you really can’t go 19-0. New England hasn’t done that yet - and even though I think they will, I also think that Jacksonville is flying under the radar, if any team that goes 11-5 in the toughest division in football can be thought of as flying under the radar. They only managed a 2-4 record in the division, but were 6-0 against the other teams they played in conference, including wins over San Diego (home) and Pittsburgh (road). (Like the rest of the non-Colts teams in the AFC South, Jacksonville went 3-1 against the NFC South, clearly the worst division in the league this year.)
But if they win...not only do they hand New England its only loss of the season, but they just might get Indianapolis in the AFC title game. The Colts have already beaten the Jaguars twice this season, and the Jaguars have got to feel good about their odds in a third game. I don’t have any numbers on this, but how often do teams play each other three times in a year? It can only happen in the playoffs between division rivals, making the competitive nature of the game that much more intense. Again, nothing concrete here...just a feeling. They know what they’re up against in the Patriots, and probably can’t help but look ahead - wistfully, maybe - at a third chance at the Colts, with a trip to the Super Bowl as the prize.
I don’t much look forward to a third game against Jacksonville, not when the Colts have already beaten them twice and when Jacksonville would be a week removed from knocking off New England. All things being equal, I would like the Colts’ chances against the Jaguars more than I would like them against the Patriots - but this is the playoffs, and if a little bit of luck shines on Jacksonville...who knows? I think I would rather have the rematch with New England - and that’s really the part that makes this bizarro feeling such a strong one.
I honestly think, in this situation, that the Colts would have a better chance against the Patriots - in a second revenge game - than they would against the Jaguars. Something else to note is that if they beat both San Diego and New England to get to the Super Bowl, they will have beaten in the playoffs the only two teams that defeated them in the regular season (obviously, the Titans loss in the last game doesn’t really count). For reasons passing understanding, I’m more confident that they can beat teams they’ve lost to than the one team left in the AFC playoffs that they have beaten. Doesn’t make any sense statistically, of course...but there it is.
It would be a strange turn of events, certainly - but the Colts proved in the playoffs last year that everything you know is wrong. They have the potential to do the same thing this year, and I’m starting to get the feeling that they will. It’s not as strong as the feeling I had last year at roughly this time, but it’s there - and that’s saying something, because I never really had much hope that the Colts would repeat as World Champions Of All Football.
6 comments:
J-Ville has got to play perfect football to beat the Pats, which means no letting off the gas like they did against Pittsburgh. They got the tools: the double headed running game, a tenacious defense, a quarterback not making mistakes, the unbelievabley scary looking coach roaming the sidelines, and one fucking huge chip on their shoulder. Do I think they will beat the Pats? No, probably not. But they have a shot.
The ONLY thing going against the pats, no NFL quarterback who led the league in passing yards has ever won the super bowl. 0-41. That and the weather. A pass happy team in shitty weather might hinder them. But I'm sure Belicheck has already thought that through, plus I'm sure it will be sunny and 75 just for the Pats.
The best thing for the Colts (and Manning) is that they no longer have to prove themselves b/c they already won one, which means Manning can play free and easy. Maybe the pressure of going 19-0 will crack the Pats. But not bloody likely.
One thing that kills me. Brady will more then likely get the MVP of the year (unless he already did). It should be his offensive line that gets that award. When you have enough time to eat a sandwich, bang and impregnate and actress then dump her for a supermodel then throw a dink and dunk pass or look down the field for a wide open Moss? Yeah, thank your O-line.
The stars aligned perfectly for the Colts last year. As well as they have played through injuries this year, I just don't think they will repeat. I can only hope that Del Rio will go insane and run onto the field and snap Brady's leg in two. Nah, I won't hope for that.
Nice comments John. I have been hearing a lot of people talking about this (especially here in Boston) and there is the Blog on ESPN.com. Green from Scouts, Inc. is predicting a Jax win. Are they a good team, yes. But if they gave up 28 points to an overrated Pitt team without the Steelers best player, how does he think that the Jax D is going to give up less points than that to the Pats? It doesn't really make sense.
Colt v. Chargers - I honestly don't give the Chargers any props. Their coach is horrible and their quarterback is a punk! I didn't get to watch a lot of Colts games this year, but I'd appreciate an honest fans opinions on the Colts D. How much of a difference is their pass rush now? Minus one and the other hurt (am I correct - Freeney and Mathis) how good is this. I look forward to a Pats/Colts game. In the first game the Colts pash rush got to Brady and hurried him (first Pats series, I believe Brady was sacked for a loss). But how has it been lately. I also would have to think that Sanders is taken a little out of his game with Moss going deep. If he covers Moss the run is open and if he stays in the box, Moss is open. It will be interesting but perhaps I'm countin' the chickens too early. Any thoughts???????
As for the Colts, I don't see how they can lose to the Chargers, which scares me. They were decimated in the first meeting. Peyton played the worst game not against New England in his career, and they still should've won. Now add to the fact that its in Indy, the colts are healthy, now it appears that Gates is out, how can the Chargers win. And that, is what scares me.
as for NE, I agree with everyone. It's an interesting match-up, but NE will win. Oh, and you forgot their closest game against the Ravens. They didn't take the lead until 1:23 left.
Dave,
I don't imagine that Sanders will see much of Moss at all, if for no other reason than that Moss is about three feet taller than Sanders. The Colts have neither size nor a true shut-down corner in the secondary - but they make up for that with closing speed and strong tackles. I think the Colts have maybe the best secondary unit, overall, in the league. Kelvin Hayden, Marlin Jackson, and Antoine Bethea are all powerful hitters with terrific closing ability. The only downside is that they too often look for the big play and miss the easy play.
Moss is going to have his game, because the Colts secondary matches up poorly against him one on one. The key, I think, is going to be keeping Wes Welker in check, and that's where Bob Sanders is going to come into play. They will look to him to contain both Welker and the New England ground game. If Sanders can do those two things effectively, I think they can let Moss have his game.
Raheem Brock and Robert Mathis are both listed as probable for San Diego and will likely be used sparingly unless absolutely necessary. The Colts D line is deep, and if they can keep Brock and Mathis to a low play count, they should be ready for New England. Mathis, on his best days, is just as good as Freeney, and Brock is nothing to sneeze at either. Knowing they're going to give up yards and scores to Moss and Welker either way, I think it would be smart for the Colts to throw in the wayward safety blitz (using Sanders) to rattle Brady.
The problem is that the Colts play a very safe, predictable game on defense. They don't beat you by throwing tricks at you, they beat you with speed and accurate hitting. I've always criticized the Colts for letting the game come to them, and that's just not something that serves you well against the Patriots, a team whose offense is designed to strike hard and fast - just like the Colts.
If the Colts come out playing hard on defense, and throw Sanders at Brady, I think they have a chance to keep up. The wild card for the Colts on offense might be #88. If Marvin Harrison is close to 100%, he probably changes the dynamic of the offense just enough to give New England some trouble. I don't necessarily think that Harrison himself is going to have a big game, but his presence in the lineup might be the x-factor that lets Joseph Addai or Kenton Keith have a big day. I'm not completely sold on that, though. Deep down, I think Harrison's extended time off the field, plus age, will limit how much he can contribute, directly or indirectly.
It's really hard to speculate as to what's going to happen, because these two teams have so many things in common on the field, and because they both have so many weapons and so few weaknesses.
Something else - this will be the first time all year that New England has played two very good teams in back to back weeks - and those two games are against two very physical teams that won't let up. It's very possible that Jacksonville will rough up the Patriots just enough that the Colts can come in and finish them off.
Whichever team survives this AFC playoff smackdown is going to be very glad to have that extra week to prepare for the Super Bowl. I have to work until 8 on Saturday, but I should be able to hear/see most of the NE/Jax game, and I'm off on Sunday so I can watch the Colts/Bolts. I'll probably do one big post on both games Sunday night - and by that point we should have a better idea of how the title game is going to go.
Scott,
Good call on the Ravens game. That one slipped my mind. Will you be posting anything new on your blog for the playoffs?
John, it's funny about your comments on Sanders v. Welker and Brady, because it's the same on NE except it's R. Harrison v. Clark and Manning. That's what killed the Pats last AFC champ. game. They had no one in the secondary that could hit (Harrison, Wilson, etc. out due to injuries) and they had no linebacker to keep up with Clark. That was the big difference in the game this year. Not only was Harrison healthy and a difference maker (He didn't play in the AFC champ and was injured in the 1st quarter vs the Colts during last years reg. season Colts win). I think it could come down to stopping Clark again, and seeing if A. Thomas can stay in his zone and keep up with Addai.
John - have a great weekend and I hope the family is doing well!!
John-O,
some absolutely excellent points. I totally agree with you on the Moss/Sanders/ Welker thing. What killed the Colts at the end of the first meeting was Welker and Kevin Faulk over the middle, not Moss. I would be happy to let Moss "get his" and go man to man with Marlon Jackson with him the whole game. If you can keep the flats and over the middle routs covered, the Pats passing game is nowhere near what it is other wise.
I am not worried about the running game too much. I expect maroney to get his 100 yards because he is a good back. I do not think that he will be a monster like Corey Dillon was 2 and 3 years ago.
Your other great point was the 2 tough games in 2 weeks thing. Remember, the Baltimore game was the week after the Philly game and I think they were a bit sore and tired going into B-more. This could be the same type of thing. I'd feel much better if it were in Indy and I wish they didn't get the extra day with playing on Saturday, but they still should be a little sore.
Now, this is of coarse all assuming that we beat SD, which as we've all said there is no reason why they shouldn't. Again, that is what scares me. We'll just have to see.
Also, I am sure I'll have some opinions after Sundays games as well, so you might check.
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