Lessons Learned?

I think it might be possible that the Colts have learned a lesson in recent weeks, after embarrassing road losses to Tennessee and Jacksonville - not a lesson to do with their rush defense, nor one to do with keeping their composure when they make mistakes. No, this lesson may have been learned by the coaches - the group that I think has the most to learn if this Colts team is ever to get that playoff glory they have been looking for and failing to find in the Peyton Manning era.

The lesson (perhaps) learned? Use aggressive defense to take the other team out of their game early. The Colts put enormous pressure on Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer tonight, and that may have been what made the difference. Yes, the offense was back to its lethal ways, and we will get to that in due course - but the defense, by throwing blitz and pressure packages at Palmer all night, got into his head and forced him to make bad decisions, which resulted in four fumbles. Granted, he got three of them back, but he did fumble four times.

The defense, especially Dwight Freeney, who had three sacks, got to Palmer early and often, and virtually eliminated a passing attack that was first in efficiency rating and fourth in yards going into tonight’s game. A secondary effect of crowding the line of scrimmage was that the Colts had linebackers in place to make tackles when Rudi Johnson took the ball up the middle - and for once, those linebackers made the tackles. I could be really cynical and say that they were making those tackles because Cincinnati just could not get their offense going, but that might just be me looking for something to complain about - which there is not much of in this game.

With the line of scrimmage effectively stuffed, the Colts made great use of their signature Cover 2 defense, getting great play in coverage from defensive backs Matt Giordano, Dexter Reid, Nick Harper, and Kelvin Hayden. Carson Palmer had no time to throw the ball, and no one to throw it to when he did have time to throw. The relatively open middle of the field was a non-factor, because the Cincinnati offense just could not get on track at all.

To wit: Carson Palmer was 14 of 28 for 176 yards, with no touchdowns (although he also threw no picks, which shows that he has quite a lot of self control in the pocket - he did fumble four times, as mentioned, but he got hit a lot); Rudi Johnson managed only 79 yards on 22 carries, and that would have been a lot less if he had not gotten one big 21-yard scamper, the only time all night that he found a hole in the Colts rush defense - and even with that 21-yard run, his average was only 3.6 yards per carry; and Chad Johnson had only 37 yards on three catches - he leads the league in receiving yards by nearly a hundred over the next closest guy, but was only the third leading receiver on his team tonight.

On the other hand...the Colts offense was back on track, mostly because of Manning, who was 29 of 36 for 282 yards and 4 touchdowns. (Oddly, he threw for more yards last week in Jacksonville - 313.) Three of those touchdowns went to Marvin Harrison, and the fourth went to Reggie Wayne. Neither Harrison nor Wayne had a hundred yards (86 and 84, respectively), but Manning managed to find seven different receivers during the game, spreading out the ball and keeping the Bengals guessing in the secondary.

Really, there are no big numbers in tonight’s game, apart from Manning’s line and Freeney’s three sacks - which took him from 2.5 on the season to 5.5. The Colts got a good, complete game from every player, committed very few penalties (5 for 35 yards), and made very few mistakes - the fumble by Wilkins was really a fluke, and this was the first time in the last five games that Manning did not have an interception.

And it wasn’t just the fact that Palmer had a bad night that kept Cincinnati out of the game - it was the fact that Palmer had a bad night BECAUSE OF the Colts defense. Interesting note - the Colts did not get the ball to start the game, something that they usually need in order to get themselves in gear. Instead, they forced a turnover on that first Bengals drive, took Palmer out of his game, and basically shut Cincinnati down - which is pretty much exactly what Jacksonville did to the Colts last week.

Now to playoff seeding. Only three teams can win the AFC 1-seed: San Diego, Indianapolis, and Baltimore. New England could finish in a tie with San Diego, but the Chargers are 5-0 in common games with none left to play, and the Patriots are 3-1 with one left to play - so San Diego can’t lose that tiebreaker.

San Diego wins the 1-seed UNLESS:
1) They lose out and the Colts or Ravens win out.
2) They finish 1-1 and the Ravens win out.

Indianapolis wins the 1-seed ONLY if:
1)They win out and the Chargers lose out.

Baltimore wins the 1-seed ONLY if:
1) They win out and BOTH the Colts and Chargers lose at least one more game.

The 2-seed at the moment is the Colts. In the event of any ties, the Colts have tiebreakers over both Baltimore (common games) and New England (head-to-head). Here’s something that might surprise you, though - in the event of a tie, New England has the common game tiebreaker over Baltimore. New England is currently 3-1 in common games with Baltimore, and the Ravens are 2-2. Any combination of a tie between the two, whether it be 12-4 or 11-5, would give New England the 2-seed over Baltimore. If both teams are 12-4, then New England won their last common game, giving them a 4-1 record in common games. In that situation, even if the one Baltimore win was against the common team, that would only make them 3-2 against common teams. If both teams are 11-5, then Baltimore lost the last common game, and even if New England did, too, they would still be a game better.

That presupposes that the Colts lose out. If they win one game, New England is out of contention for the 2-seed. The only way for Baltimore to get the 2-seed is if they have a better record than the Colts. So, to make a long story short (too late!), the Colts helped themselves quite a lot by beating Cincinnati tonight. It just remains to be seen if they can keep it up.

Power Rankings

5. Chicago - Yes, they are good. Yes, Grossman is making strides and improving. No, they are not in the same class as any of the contenders in the AFC.

4. Baltimore - Yes, the defense is amazing. Yes, McNair has helped the offense. No, they are not getting any younger.

3. New England - Yes, the schedule has been cake, so far. Yes, the last two games are going to be really, really hard. No, if they win those two games, I would not want to have to play them in the first round.

2. Indianapolis - Yes, the rush defense is still sketchy. Yes, Manning is still prone to getting rattled when he makes mistakes. No, you can’t turn the ball over on your first drive, then let them score first and have any hope of beating them.

1. San Diego - Yes, they are the best team in the league. Yes, LaDanian Tomlinson is the MVP. No, they are not going to lose again this year.

MVP

3. Tom Brady - It’s a long shot, but if the Patriots win out, they could be the AFC 2-seed. Their last two games are at Jacksonville and at Tennessee. If the Patriots win both of those, they go into the playoffs with a head of steam you don’t want to get in front of.

2. Peyton Manning - Give him a lead, or commit a turnover, and you might as well go home. When his offense is clicking, Manning is unstoppable. When his defense is clicking, too, these guys are scary good.

1. LaDanian Tomlinson - Will run riot over the Colts in the playoffs, to the tune of numbers that will probably make your eyes water. But if Colts DE Dwight Freeney gets to Rivers the way he got to Carson Palmer, Tomlinson is going to have a long night.