Good old Scrooge here, for a bit of Christmas coal for you. An ESPN poll yesterday asked the question:
Will Tom Brady break the NFL’s single-season touchdown record?
The key word in that question, of course, is WILL. The question is not SHOULD he break the record, or DO YOU WANT HIM to break the record. The question is WILL he break the record.
The results of the poll are:
Yes: 89%
No: 11%
If you take the time - and I did - to look at the poll results state by state, factoring out Indiana, the results are 90-10. That’s right, sports fans, the ever-insightful football fans here in Hillbillyana managed, with a scant 492 votes, to swing the results by a whole percentage point.
The lowest Yes percentage in any non-Indiana state is 83 (South Dakota). Not surprisingly, the four highest Yes states are Rhode Island (95), Maine (96), Masachusetts (97), and New Hampshire (98) - all of which are in the geographical region of New England. If you factor in the other two New England states (Connecticut and Vermont), the aggregate New England Yes average is 94. The aggregate non-New England Yes average is 89.
Spot anything odd so far? No? Here’s what you’re missing. Obviously there is a bias in favor of Brady in New England states and a bias against Brady in the state containing the biggest rival the Patriots have for league supremacy (Hillbillyana). If you take out the New England states, the aggregate Yes percentage does not change. But if you take out ONLY Indiana, the aggregate Yes percentage goes up a point.
Indiana’s Yes result, by the way, is 71.
So what’s the point of all of this? It is to illustrate a point about Indiana football fans. They are either remarkably prescient, or astonishingly unable (or unwilling) to make valid arguments. Based on his performance so far this year, Brady is absolutely going to break the record. He needs to throw two touchdowns on Sunday against NYG to break the record. So far this season, he is averaging 3.2 touchdowns per game. He has thrown fewer than two touchdowns twice in fifteen games. He has thrown for four or more touchdowns a remarkable FIVE times in fifteen games.
There are exactly two factors, and two factors only, that will influence how many touchdown tosses he has on Sunday against NYG - how long he plays, and how well he plays. How long he will play will be based largely on how badly Bill Belichick wants his team to win all 16 regular season games. How well he will play is well documented - you can click on his ESPN player card to see for yourself just how well he has done, with respect to numbers, this season.
It’s possible - yes, possible - that Brady will not break the record. His touchdown production has fallen off considerably in the second half of the season. After eight games, he had 30 touchdown passes, putting him on pace for a total of 60 for the season. In the second half, he has 18 touchdowns in seven games so far. In the first half, he averaged 3.75 touchdowns per game; and in the second half he is averaging 2.57 touchdowns per game.
But it’s not likely that he will not break the record. Any rudimentary examination of this season’s stats will tell you that. You can WANT him not to break the record - but you cannot honestly say that you believe he will not, based on what he has so far done this season. Not that I’ll ever mistake Indiana football fans as bright enough to understand that - but that’s the way it is.
5 comments:
Well, you're starting to sound like me. The only problem I have with your logic is this, you call Indiana football fans stupid but go on to say that there is a chance he might not break the record. If there is a no doubt about it 100% chance that he will break it then I would start calling Indiana folk stupid. But I would just say they are loyal fans and they are just voicing their opinions. How about taking the same poll in Boston in 2004 when Manning was making his record breaking run, I'm sure it would be the same result out of spite. Personally, as an Indiana football fan I give Brady a 50% chance of breaking it on a couple of factors:
1) The weather - The Meadowlands has been a quarterbacks worse nightmare in the last couple of weeks; wind, snow, rain all not condusive for the passing game. If it is windy, rainy or snowy this will play into the Giants hands. They will let Brady take the long bomb and look for his usual dink and dunk slant passes and delayed hand offs. If it's perfect weather then I would bet the farm that Brady will break the record. But late December, in New Jersey? Not likely it will be very fun.
2) The play calling - The Giants are going to be playing the pass all the way and will be making it extremely hard for Brady to break the record, plus, they will be blitzing like hell. The Giants front line is pretty decent, so I expect a hard push to knock Brady out of his comfort zone.
3) The grind - Unless the Pats are on HGH, they are really going to start feeling the pressure and grind, even Brady, which might result in fatigue and bad decision making. They didn't score one point against the Dolphins in the second half and Brady threw 2 bad pics. Remember, the Dolphins are probably one of the worst football teams in history, and they kept the juggernaut silent for the 3rd and 4th quarters while the Pats looked fatigued. I was very surprised they pulled Brady with 3 minutes left.
4) The Giants - The motivation is high for the Giants to play their best football and knock off the reigning doucheb.., I mean, juggernauts of the NFL.
5) Belicheck - Belicheck is not stupid (yes, I'm giving him credit) he will not sacrifice his winning streak for the sake of a singular dream(s). If winning means running the ball, he will run the ball. In the 2002 Super Bowl Mike Martz (Rams coach) was such an ego maniac that he continuously passed the ball, even though it wasn't working, and forgot that he had a pro bowl running back (Faulk). Belicheck will not make the same mistake.
I would be careful to call people stupid for just being fans.
You make good arguments. A person who says Brady will not break the record based solely on that person's loyalty as a Colts fan does not make a good argument. In fact, they don't make any kind of argument because the argument fails the test of logic and is invalid.
Calling people who argue that way "stupid" was harsh - and hyperbolic! I suppose it would have been more politic to say that they are simply blind to their own lack of reason, or that they don't know how to make an argument. Thanks for helping me get back on the high road!
It's funny.
If I made the EXACT same post, and made the EXACT same points, you'd still tell me I was stupid and didn't know what I was talking about.
The first part of the season I spent hours breaking down the stats of both Colts and Patriots games, and presented them in a clear and concise form on my blog, and you told me I had no idea what I was doing.
I'm glad you didn't bring up my name anywhere in this. Because last week I said I knew he was probably going to break it, and possible against the Dolphins. Of course I don't want him to, but life goes on. The year Peyton broke the record, we didn't make it to the Super Bowl. So, Brady can have the record, I'll take the second ring.
My my my, it seems that this has created quite the little stir. Let me first say this, I think the vast majority of local team's fans are "stupid". What I mean by stupid is that they do not formulate their own opinions very often, and when they do, the have nothing to back them up. They mostly go with who they like or what they've heard.
Now, before anyone gets ruffled, let me say that I am speaking about no one that has commented here. Other than John-O, I don't know what you all do or do not know.
What I do know is that there are probably, I'd say, no more than 25% of any teams local fans that are "knowledgeable" fans. The rest are the people that know that Bob Sanders is great because ESPN told them he was. Or that think this Patriots team is head and shoulders above any other team in history because they heard some sports radio guy say that last week.
However, if you were to ask any of these people why they think this, they'd have no real, solid reason. They'd quote you some stat they read, or some nugget they heard, but wouldn't understand what either meant.
Any "smart" sports fan has had that time they were at a game and over-heard some idiot talking about why he hates the prevent defense while his team is in an obvious 3-4, or that the the DH is a great idea and should be in both leagues. Or you've been talking with some friends and one of them starts talking about how mad they are that IU hired Kelvin Sampson instead of Steve Alford because of Sampsons phone issues even though Alford was A. in a similar situation as far as being in trouble with the NCAA after trying to cover up Pierre Peirce's domestic assault when he threw his girlfriend down the stairs, and B. had just been FIRED by that power house program Iowa with not one single second weekend tournament appearance to his credit (Just because he's one of the 5 greatest Hoosier players does not make him a good coach). You can't deny it, it has happened. We've all been there. Oh, and by the way, if you haven't heard this, then you are on the other side of that scenario.
Now, as for Brady and the record, I agree with everyone here. All signs point to yes, but we'll have to wait and see. I will say that I will be shocked if he doesn't for a few reasons.
1. I don't think the Giants will play their guys the entire game, especially if they are behind. If the Pats can get up early, by run or pass, then you will see very few Giant D starters in the second half. If it is close, then maybe, but....
2. Belicheck loves pissing the average fan off. That is why he leaves his guys in the whole game, goes for it on 4th and 8 while up by 30, etc. He hates "conventional wisdom" and likes to get people angry. He will leave his guys in the entire game because he wants to go 16-0. He wants to knock the 'Phins out of their perch, especially after Shula dropped the "asterisk" comment. Likewise, he wants his guys to hold these records. I think he will look to get Brady and Moss both their 2 TD's early, but make no mistake, he will keep trying until they get them, or there are 0's on the clock.
Now, I do agree that he is smart enough to run the ball if the weather is bad, or if Maroney is having a big game. But you could see a 3 yard fade to Moss and a 4 yard pass to Vrabel very easily after drives where 60 yards were gained on the ground.
3. I am not worried about "the grind". Remember they dropped 34 on Pitt 3 weeks ago. This is one of the best teams in recent memory. They are full of guys that have won multiple Super Bowl titles. The word "grind" doesn't really apply to them.
Now, to sort-of wrap this up, I think he'll break the record, I think the majority of a teams local fans are retarded, but I don't always think that is bad.
Teams need the brain dead types just as much as the guys that do nothing but study stats. Their money spends just as well.
Also, most of the time, they are the vocal ones. Most of the time, the "idiot" fans are the ones out there making noise about their team. Is it always coherent? No, but they are out there.
I do not discount their passion, or their love for their team. I do however think they are a less knowledgeable sports fan that I am. If that makes me a arrogant ass or whatever, so be it.
I am actually glad that Indiana could sway that vote this much. Are they answering the actual question? No. But hell, i would be upset if we weren't voting against him. If anyone is, it should be Colts' fans. If 2 years from now the Pats fans weren't voting against a historic run by Manning out of spite, I'd be upset then too. It adds to the rivalry. Look at Duke/UNC, or Michigan/Ohio State, or Red Sox/Yanks. These rivalries live on mostly due to the idiotic comments made by their fans to each other. I don't care what the question is, if it involves someone from Boston, I guarantee the most negative responses are going to be from New York, and thats great. Adds fuel to the fire.
OK, I have more to say, but I think I'll stop now before things get a little personal. John-O, I'll just say this, I totally understand what you were talking about at lunch that day. Good fun commenting with everyone.
I will only point out one thing...prime mover said,
"...to start feeling the pressure and grind, even Brady, which might result in fatigue and bad decision making. They didn't score one point against the Dolphins in the second half and Brady threw 2 bad pics...silent for the 3rd and 4th quarters while the Pats looked fatigued..."
Do you think it is possible that Brady and team wanted the record set at home in front of their fans? That's the only reasoning for him throwing into triple coverage, Brady really is proud of his TD to INT ratio.
Can't wait to watch tonight's game... :-)
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