Shall We Dance?

Looks like a good year to be a mid-major school in the Big Dance and on the west half of the bracket. Butler, Old Dominion, Wright State, Southern Illinois, and Winthrop are all hanging out in the West and Midwest regions, poised to knock off some big seeds on their way to NCAA Tournament glory. I don’t think any of those teams has Final Four potential, but national parity is going to make this a mighty interesting tournament. And if things fall the right way for one of these schools, who knows?

I think the Butler-Old Dominion game in the first round is ridiculous. Here are two pretty good mid-major schools that both have the potential to win a game or two (three?) in the tournament, and one of them is going out in the first round because of dopey scheduling. Nevada-Creighton in the South region is another goofy first round game. Those are both teams that like to make noise in the first round and put on a show.

Creighton, especially, with its dumpy schedule and candy-ass conference situation, could have been a lower seed and been given an opportunity to showcase its game against a Virginia or a Louisville. The Blue Jays lost two of three to the other big gun (the only real big gun) in the MVC, Southern Illinois, and those were the only games they played against ranked opponents. Sure, they won a lot of conference games, but a whopping four teams in that league finished conference play at least four games under five hundred. (Hell, as far as MVC bids go, Missouri State has to be pretty hacked they didn’t get in. They got to the conference semis before losing to eventual champion Creighton - and also beat Wisconsin.)

And as for Nevada, a 7-seed? Was Louisville, a 6-seed, that much more impressive (other than the win at Pitt) than the Wolf Pack? How about flipping those seeds and letting Nevada take a run at Pac-10 rep Stanford? Then we could see how well Louisville fared against a plucky Missouri Valley team in Creighton. But that’s just me. What do I know?

Florida has the easiest run to Atlanta, because there are three good mid-majors in that region (Butler, Old Dominion, and Winthrop) and also because once you get past 2-seed Wisconsin, the quality of that bracket drops in a hurry. Georgetown also has a pretty easy run to the Great Eight - their half of the bracket is awfully soft, and the worst-case scenario is that they play 1-seed North Carolina with a trip to Atlanta as a prize.

The south region is gong to be exciting. Memphis should have been a 1-seed - at 30-3, only one other team, 1-seed Ohio State, has as good a record. I suspect that after this season, someone in the athletic department at Memphis is going to start thinking about how much it would take for Memphis to be invited to join the Southeastern Conference. Had they been in that conference this year and made the conference tourney finals, they would have played Florida - and I think that’s going to be your National Championship game.

I like Ohio State a lot, but they’re really young, and they look extremely vulnerable when they don’t come out gunning. I think the Buckeyes get to the Great Eight, but will meet in that game a Memphis team playing with a big chip on its shoulders - and it’s conceivable the Buckeyes don’t even make it that far, because they will likely meet Tennessee in the Sweet Sixteen, and the Vols will be looking for revenge for the buzzer-beater loss Ohio State handed to them in Columbus on January 13th. I’ll take the Buckeyes in that one, though, because they’re just the better team, and they will come into their own in this tournament. It’s going to take a good, good team to knock out Ohio State, and Memphis is the only team in their region that qualifies. (Florida and Georgetown could do it, too, and maybe Kansas - but Ohio State would have to get to Atlanta to play any of those teams, and would have to win a game in Atlanta to play either Kansas or Florida for the championship - and I don’t think the Buckeyes will last quite that long.)

Before I get to my Final Four picks, I’ll talk briefly about Indiana. The last time the Final Four was played in Atlanta, Indiana - on a good run of bad luck for other teams - got all the way to the title game before losing the worst title game of all time to Maryland. Things aren’t going to fall that way for Indiana this time, but they are going to get some good breaks, and they’ll make the Great Eight.

They beat Gonzaga in the first round mostly because head coach Kelvin Sampson will have them fired up to do so - this is the last hurrah for senior Rod Wilmont, and a chance for junior D.J. White to showcase his formidable talents to NBA scouts. (D.J., if you’re listening - please stay next year. You guys will have a real shot at the Big Ten championship and a deep run in the NCAAs, if you can stay healthy and Eric Gordon proves that he has the goods. You might be a first-round pick right now - though I doubt it - but if you stay and next year falls the way it should, you’ll be lottery for sure, and maybe top five.) Also, Gonzaga knocked Indiana out in the second round last year, and the Hoosiers will be looking for revenge.

In round two, the Hoosiers likely draw 2-seed UCLA. I don’t know if there is any luck in this or not, but UCLA is definitely the 2-seed you would rather play if you had a choice between the four (the others are Memphis, Wisconsin, and Georgetown - and yes, Indiana has already beaten Wisconsin, but that was in Bloomington). If Indiana beats UCLA, I think they get Wright State in the Sweet Sixteen - if Wright State can win two big games, their opening matchup against Pittsburgh and their theoretical secound round game against Duke. That would put Wright State on the George Mason path of excellence, but if Indiana can find a way to knock off UCLA, they can put a stop to Wright State’s dreams of glory. Unfortunately, Indiana would find themselves staring down the barrel of a good Kansas team in the Great Eight. Probably then it’s Kansas’ turn to stop an upstart’s dreams of glory. Either way, it won’t matter - the winner gets Florida in the Final Four, and Florida is on track for a repeat this year.

Final Four: Florida, Kansas, Georgetown, and Memphis
Championship game: Florida and Memphis
National Champion: Florida

Big upsets:
1. Tennesee is the only 5-seed to survive the first round.
2. Winthrop goes to the Great Eight, knocking off Notre Dame, Oregon, and Wisconsin along the way.
3. Vanderbilt thrashes Washington State in the second round, and gives Georgetown a scare in the Sweet Sixteen.
4. The success that the 1- and 2-seed teams will have. Any of the 2-seeds could have been a 1-seed if this or that conference championship game had gone differently - and this is, I think, the best overall grouping of 1- and 2-seeds in a long time. Normally you have some 1-seeds and 2-seeds exiting relatively early, but those eight teams are so strong this year that I think they survive. I have all four 1-seeds in the Great Eight, along with two of the 2-seeds. The other two Great Eight teams? Indiana, a 7-seed, and Winthrop, an 11-seed.

Best games:
First round - Butler/Old Dominion
Second round - Memphis/Nevada or Vanderbilt/Washington State
Sweet Sixteen - Georgetown/Vanderbilt
Great Eight - Ohio State/Memphis