Skinned

Going into this NFL season, I would have been a little bit surprised if many people had the Chicago Bears on the radar to do much more than win the pathetic NFC North (they’ll probably win more games this year than the other three teams in their division combined); after six games, however, they are clearly the best team in the NFL, and the talk among sports fans (and especially among Bears fans) should now be shifting from whether they can make a deep run in the playoffs to whether or not this team is better than the one that thrashed the Patriots in the 1986 Super Bowl.

I’ve talked about their stats before, and little has changed in this department. Their numbers are gaudy, both on offense and defense. Their offense is just as scary as has been the Colts offense in the last few years, but the Bears also have the defense to match. In the past couple of years, the Colts have never had to worry much about putting points on the board; the concern for them has been whether or not they could keep the other team from scoring more than they did. The Bears do not have that concern. They also have little to be worried about as far as the schedule goes. Even if you looked at their schedule before the season started, before you knew what you now know about this Bears squad, you would have projected them to win a lot of games. How many? Well, you decide. Here’s their schedule, and try to base your number on what you knew about the Bears before this season started:

At Green Bay
Vs. Detroit
At Minnesota
Vs. Seattle
Vs. Buffalo
At Arizona
Bye
Vs. San Francisco
Vs. Miami
At NYG
At NYJ
At New England
Vs. Minnesota
At St. Louis
Vs. Tampa Bay
At Detroit
Vs. Green Bay

What did you come up with? Most of you probably had a 7-1 team going into that fairly rough three-game east coast stretch (the loss being to Seattle), and you also probably had them going 1-2 in that stretch (beating only NYJ). Did anyone really see them losing any of those last five games? I didn’t. That makes them 13-3, if you factor out the fact that they have slaughtered everyone they have played so far this season. If you take that into account, especially that they did not lose to Seattle, then you have to reevaluate that east coast stretch and say to yourself that those are three games they can win.

That’s 16-0. Right now, the only game they even have to worry about a tiny bit is at New England, a team whose schedule has not so far been as easy (they have already hosted Denver, their only loss, and gone to Cincinnati). On paper, no team in the league can touch Chicago, but the Patriots have the psychological advantages of having won three of the last five Super Bowls and having so far played beyond the expectations of most people who thought the dynasty was over (for the record, it is, but even though that may be, this is still a good, good team, and Bill Belichick is still the best coach in the league).

If the Bears do go undefeated in the regular season, then they get the psychological advantage (not to mention the home-field one) for the playoffs. You might as well start engraving the Lombardi trophy right now.

Unless...this Bears team happens to run into the Colts team that took the field to start the second half against the hapless Washington Redskins this late afternoon in the Hoosier Dome in downtown Indianapolis. Granted, they shredded a Redskins secondary that is suspect at best, but they did it efficiently, quickly, and forcefully, looking for the first time like the high-octane offense that threw a record 49 touchdown passes in 2004.

This was the most complete game the Colts have played so far this season. Total yards given up were higher than their average (although this is based on stats on ESPN’s website, reviewed after two in the morning on Monday, so they may include today’s game), though not by much; rushing yards given up were way down (114 today, 167 average), but passing yards were way up (226 today, 159 average), although yards per pass were only 6.1, which is pretty low and means that the Colts were making tackles almost immediately after the ball was caught, and not letting the Redskin receivers tack on lots of extra yards down the field.

The Colts had 452 yards of total offense, against a 357 average, and posted 36 points against a 27 average. Manning’s numbers were just sick: 25 completions on 35 throws for 342 yards and 4 touchdowns, against no picks (remember, Washington’s secondary is pretty crappy - they have all of two picks, which puts them at 29th in the league in that regard). Joseph Addai had 85 yards on the ground, and Reggie Wayne hauled in 7 balls for 122 yards and a touchdown. Marvin Harrison quietly had 7 balls for 73 yards and two scores. It should also be noted that the Colts turned the penalty situation around, committing only 3 penalties for 27 yards, none of which were costly.

Having said that, though, the Colts allowed Washington to convert on both of their fourth down attempts (at which they had previously been 0-2), and also allowed Antwaan Randle El - the most exciting player in the history of the National Football League* - to run a punt back for a touchdown. They also let Mark Brunell, that ageless wonder, throw at will (27 of 37 for 226 yards, 2 touchdowns, no picks) - apparently they can focus on either rush or pass defense in one game, but not both.

That’s not going to cut it against the Bears, never mind the other good teams the Colts have to play between here and the Super Bowl. And the schedule does not work in their favor for the rest of the season. Of the next four games, three are road games against teams that are currently in first place in their divisions (Denver, New England, and Dallas - combined record: 13-4), and the middle of December features back-to-back games at Jacksonville and home against Cincinnati - and even though the Begnals must thus far be thought of as disappointing, I don’t want the Colts to be the team against whom they turn it around.

Bottom line: the Colts today did what they are very good at doing - they let the game, against a lesser team, come to them in the first half, and then made the halftime adjustments that let them come out in the third quarter and pound the opponent into submission. I have a bad feeling that this team is so confident in its ability to bounce back that it feels comfortable in letting the other team dictate the terms of the game at the outset. But they have done so to this point against six teams that are not that good. NYG, NYJ, and Jacksonville are good teams, but the Colts have great teams waiting in the wings, and they can’t afford to make mistakes against the kind of teams that don’t make mistakes - not to belabor the point, but this is New England and Chicago I’m talking about. I have this nauseous feeling in my gut that the Colts might be playing the Patriots for the AFC title, and the Colts are only a half game better than New England right now. The November 5th game in Foxboro could mean the difference between playing in the New England snow or playing in the 72 degree Hoosier Dome come playoff time. It was just one year ago that the Colts threw the Patriot monkey off their backs; they lose in New England and that monkey is right back on again.

And I’m no zoologist, but I think it’s safe to say that a bear weighs more than a monkey.

* Not actually true, but I went to Indiana, and he has been the only exciting thing to happen to Indiana football in a long, long time - plus, I like to rub it in the face of everybody and their mother who said after his senior year at Indiana that he was too small to make it in the NFL. Turns out he’s the best punt return guy in the game, and also a viable option at receiver and tailback.