Behold The Pale Horse, For The Manning Who Sat On Him Was Death

So Amy asked me the other day how the Colts game was going to go this late afternoon in Denver, and my reply to her was that it was very likely to go the way most Colts games have gone this year - and the pattern has been that the games begin ugly (poor run defense, lots of yards given up to the other team, difficulty scoring their own points) and then turn around in the second half (three-and-outs for the opponent and quick, efficient drives to fast point for the Colts).

At the end of the first half, then, the Colts were down, 14-6; they had moved the ball well but failed to score a touchdown (which is what Denver, a very good team with the best points defense in the league, has been doing to teams all season), and had given up some long passing yards to Jake Plummer, the Denver quarterback known for being streaky.

So...to start the second half, the Colts stuffed the Broncos and forced them to punt, then got a nifty runback from Terrence Wilkins which set up a 56-yard touchdown drive in six plays. On the ensuing Denver drive, the Colts stuffed them again, and sacked Jake Plummer on third down - which forced a fumble that the Colts recovered. Plummer was ruled down by contact, but the Colts threw in the red flag, and the play was overturned, with the referee saying that, after further review, the quarterback landed on another player and lost the ball before his body touched the ground. Three plays later, Peyton Manning found Reggie Wayne (who had ten balls for 138 yards, three touchdowns and a two-point conversion today - which might have earned him a spot in the Pro Bowl) in the end zone for their second touchdown in the second half, and giving them their first lead, 20-14.

Before this game, Denver was giving up, on average, a scant 7.3 points per game. They had given up only two touchdowns in six games, and then turned around and gave up two to the Colts in about ten real-time minutes of the second half. Both teams played good games - it’s the kind of game where you don’t want to see either team lose unless one of them happens to be your favorite team - but the Broncos may have made one costly error. They left second-year cornerback Darrent Williams in man coverage on Colts receiver Reggie Wayne all day - because they had assigned Champ Bailey to Marvin Harrison (a more zone-oriented coverage). The Broncos also dropped their safeties back into deep coverage and kept them there all day, too - which allowed Manning to use tight end Dallas Clark in the slot, with excellent results (six balls for 68 yards) - he’s pretty much money when he can get in underneath coverage as deep as the Broncos played it today. Putting Bailey on Harrison worked, as Marvin was mostly a non-factor in the game, but it left an inexperienced corner on the best number two receiver in the league. And Manning burned them for the mistake.

Adjustments made during halftime? Yep. The second half wasn’t the pretty shellacking I was hoping for, but I guess that wasn’t really likely to happen against the Broncos on their home field. Bottom line - the Broncos are one of the elite teams in this league, they were at home, and you can’t just walk into someone else’s house and expect to rough them up when they are that good. My count of elite teams now stands at five, in order of excellence.

1. Indianapolis
2. Chicago
3. Denver
4. New England
5. NYG

I may be reaching by including the Giants in there, but I felt sort of bad about putting only one NFC team on the list (the Falcons and Vikings are knocking on the door, but I just don’t believe in them - people like to pick them, just like they like to pick Carolina, year after year, and they always disappoint); and I do still think they are a strong team. It’s probably a good thing, though, that the NFC East isn’t turning out to be quite as strong as people thought it was going to be going into the season.

I put the Colts above the Bears, even though the Bears are still putting up sick numbers, because the Colts are beating better teams. Five of the Bears wins have come against Green Bay, Detroit, Buffalo, freaking Arizona, and San Francisco (combined record 9-27); their other two wins are against Minnesota and Seattle (combined record 8-5), which has the Bears winning seven games over teams that have gone 17-32 for the year so far, and that includes wins over two of the three 1-win teams in the league. The third of those 1-win teams is Miami, which plays Chicago next week. The Colts, meanwhile, have beaten Houston, NYJ, Tennessee, and Washington (mostly cruddy teams that have so far gone 10-19); and their quality wins are over Jacksonville, Denver, and NYG (good teams sporting a combined record of 14-7), which has the Colts winning seven games over teams that have gone 24-26 for the year. Also, the Colts have beaten two current division leaders (Denver and NYG), both on the road; the Bears have beaten one division leader (Seattle), at home. I mean no disrespect to the Bears - what they have done this season has been impressive, regardless of the teams against whom they have done it; and I have acquiesced to the fact that the Bears have been the best team in the league for the last few weeks. But not anymore. Not after this win against the Broncos. The Colts and Bears each have no tougher opponent left on the schedule than the Patriots, and it is a road game for both teams. Given how good the Patriots are this year, we’ll probably get the best idea of which team is actually the best in the league this year, the Colts or the Bears, by comparing how each fares against New England.

(For Shane, regarding Joseph Addai and the starting tailback job: Believe it or not, here’s what I was thinking as I was driving to work and listening to the pre-game show on Q95. I have been thinking that Addai should be starting, and getting more touches, and getting the chance to ring up impressive numbers. Today, however, it occurred to me for the first time to think about this conservatively, from Tony Dungy’s standpoint. What the Colts have done, so far, at the running back position, has worked - you can’t really argue with seven wins against no defeats. And as the season has progressed, and Addai has developed (into such a better between-the-tackles runner than Edgerrin James was, and at least as good a pass-catcher), his numbers have gotten flashier. However, he is a rookie, he is still learning, and our beloved Colts, who have put up ridiculous regular seasons the last couple of years, have always floundered in the playoffs. By not starting him, Dungy is helping to keep Addai fresh for the end of the season, and the playoffs. As I am sure you would agree, the Colts don’t need much more than one or two little breaks here or there in the playoffs, to get to the Super Bowl and win it. A fresh Joseph Addai running the ball might be just the thing. And make no mistake - if the Colts were struggling this year, Addai would be starting, because we would need him to start. Dungy’s conservative approach usually seems to come back and nosh on the collective posterior regions of this team, but I think he’s right here. Also, not a minute after I thought that to myself in the car on the way to work - that Addai would be starting if we needed him to - John Clayton echoed my thought after getting basically the same question from one of the radio guys.)