Monday, September 29, 2008

The Red Herring: Or, How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Accept The Rush Defense

Rush Defense
2008 - 31st, 199.3 (after three games)
2007 - 15th, 106.9
2006 - 32nd, 173.0 (27.6 YPG worse than #31)
2005 - 16th, 110.1
2004 - 24th, 127.3
2003 - 20th, 123.8 (tie, St. Louis)
Average - 21.4, 128.22

Pass Defense
2008 - 2nd, 141.0 (after three games)
2007 - 2nd, 172.8
2006 - 2nd, 159.3
2005 - 15th, 196.9
2004 - 28th, 243.3
2003 - 5th, 175.6
Average - 10.4, 189.58

From 2003-2007, the Colts have averaged 128.22 yards per game given up by the rush defense. In that span, they were no better than 15th in the league in rush defense - and as bad as 32nd. (There are 32 teams in the NFL.) The year they were 32nd, they gave up a remarkable 173 yards per game on the ground. They were gashed that year, in Jacksonville, for 375 yards on the ground - against the same two tailbacks that dropped 236 yards on them a week ago Sunday.

Of course, that was the same season that concluded with the Colts waxing Chicago in Miami and winning the Super Bowl. Is the rush defense a red herring? Absolutely. Not in the sense that anyone is trying to be misleading - but in the sense that it doesn’t really matter. In the same five-year span, the Colts averaged 12.6 wins per season. Only four other teams in the league have averaged 10 or more wins per season in the same span; and of those, only one - New England - has more wins per season (13.2) than the Colts. (The other three teams are Seattle at 10.2 and Pittsburgh and San Diego, both at 10.0.)

Just like they lucked their way to the Super Bowl, the Colts will from time to time luck out and have a decent-to-good rush defense; but this part of the game will never be the focus because it’s not how the team is built to win. This team is built to win with passing - by scoring quickly and often with their passing offense, and by neutralizing the opponent’s vertical game with the Cover 2 defense. This naturally leads Colts opponents to run the ball, which, more often than not, showcases the fact that linebackers who play for the Colts tend to be awful. And when you have Freeney spinning off the end on every play, you effectively wind up with a 3-4 defense that lacks both the fourth linebacker and the nose tackle needed to make that scheme work. The result is that teams can run on the Colts at will - and they do.

People get distracted by the run defense because it’s easy to see how bad it is, and they fail to see the coaching deficiencies that contribute to how bad the rush defense is. Tony Dungy is a good coach. That’s it. He’s not a great coach, and he’s not some wizard when it comes to coaching defense. People think he’s a wizard because of that Tampa Cover 2, but if you’re going to make the case for the Tampa 2, you have to give at least as much credit for that defense to middle (4-3) or weakside (3-4) linebacker Derrick Brooks as you do to Dungy. Brooks is a special talent, the likes of which the Indianapolis Colts have never had at linebacker.

The Colts will never have a great rush defense - nor even a respectable one, very often - for three reasons. The first is that they don’t draft to fill needs - they draft the best player available when their number comes up. This is not necessarily a bad thing - drafting the best player available has allowed the Colts to build one of the best offenses in football and what is without question the best secondary in the league. However, all of that exceptional talent comes at a price; and the second reason the Colts will never excel at stopping the run is that they don’t have the money to play the free agent market in an effort to land that elusive superstar linebacker. They also don’t have the money to keep their good linebackers from leaving at the end of the season - reason #3. Last year’s best linebacker, Gary Brackett (and yes, that is sort of sad), was the first since 2003 who did not depart at the end of the season. The roll call of best-linebackers-who-left-at-the-end-of-the-season begins, after the 2003 season, with Mike Peterson, and continues with Marcus Washington (2004), David Thornton (2005) and Cato June (2006).

But that’s far too much on a subject that doesn’t matter. The rush defense didn’t lose the Jacksonville game. Something else that didn’t lose the Jacksonville game (though I imagine a lot of people think it did) was the Freddy Keiaho interference penalty that put the Jaguars into field goal range. Had the Colts called their plays better on their last drive, it would have been Jacksonville trying to lateral their way to a miracle victory with no time left on the clock.

Instead, they called two pass plays on first and second down with goal to go and less than ninety seconds to play. Those two passes were incompletions that melted exactly six seconds off the clock. Six. Seconds. Off. The. Clock. I don’t recall how many timeouts Jacksonville had left during this series, but I don’t think it would have mattered - if they had had any, they would have saved them to use on their last drive, probably assuming the Colts would score. The Colts should have run Addai four times in a row, even if it meant losing the game. Who in the world thought it was a good idea to score quick and then let the defense - which had been on the field for the vast majority of the second half - try to hold a Jacksonville offense it had as yet been unable to stop?

You might be saying that all of this should have been moot - Rashean Mathis should have been called for interference on the pick he ran back for a touchdown, right? All right...yeah, he probably should have been flagged. And yet the Colts were still in position to win - with the ball, goal to go, less than two minutes - and they blew it. They lost a game they should have won, and of which they had control in the last two minutes, when that control really matters. Losing games they should have won is why Lane Kiffin is going to get fired this week (also because Al Davis likes to fire coaches almost as much as Steinbrenner likes - or used to like - to fire managers).

The rush defense is always going to be bad - but it is rarely going to lose games for the Colts. I don’t keep track of football as much as I used to, but I believe they still award victories to the team that scores the most points, not the team that runs for the most yards. They called the wrong plays at the end of the Jacksonville game, it’s as simple as that. Maybe Dungy made the call, and maybe Moore sent it to Manning that way - but Manning, who can change the play at the line of scrimmage, and does so often, is the one who threw the ball twice instead of handing it off. It was those last two passes that cost the Colts the game, not the rush defense.

13 comments:

Shane M. White said...

1. I 100% agree with your statement on what lost the Jacksonville game for us. I've been meaning to blog about it, but haven't found the time.

2. You made a small typo: In 2006, Jacksonville rand for 375 yards against us. Jones-Drew had 166, Taylor had 131, Pearman had 71 and two other scrubs grabbed a total of 7.

The rush defense doesn't concern me, it's Peyton getting back to being Peyton and getting us into the lead. We're falling behind in the score, and inviting teams to run on us.

Also, it's pretty hard to win a game, when you've only got the ball less than four minutes of a half. But, we still almost pulled it of. If not for a "questionable"-at the 5-yard line interference call, then we wouldn't be hating on the bad play-calling as much as we are...

John Peddie said...

Yep, you're right. Thanks.

troy myers said...

in your praise for derrick brooks, it seems that you are overlooking the vast importance of having a defensive tackle, like the incredible warren sapp, who kept brooks clean for a lot of years by taking on two o-lineman on almost every play. other than booger mcfarland's injury free campaign(the one in which they won the super bowl) the colts have never had this type of space eater to keep linebackers unblocked in the manning era.

also of importance was the badass thumper named john lynch playing behind him, which allowed brooks to gamble from time to time because he knew he had back up.

they say baseball teams should be built "up the middle" but i feel it is even more important for nfl defenses to be built that way.

tony dungy, who is an average coach at best, has lucked into jobs which gave him one of the most talented defenses of all time(tampa) and one of the best offenses of all time(indy) and has only one ring to show for it. kinda sad.

Last King of SCOOTland said...

OK, let me first say that I apologize if this is too long, but you brought up a lot of great points, and I have some spare time.

1. Let me get this out of the way first. Troy, while I do agree that Warren Sapp was a big part of Derrick Brooks' success, you can't ignore the fact that he has been a Pro-Bowl caliber guy the last few years without Sapp. So while I agree that Sapp was great and helped, I think Brooks is a once in a generation talent. (BTW, I make no bones about being a huge, huge, HUGE Derrick Brooks fan as I have followed him since college, when he started as a safety, but I digress).

2. John-O, I am quite impressed at your in depth, statistical analysis. Nice work. And I couldn't agree more with you. I think rush defense is as over-rated a stat as pitching W's and L's are. ERA and WHIP are the stats that really show how great a pitcher is, not W's and L's. Run defense is fun to talk about, and is a convenient point to bitch about, but it ultimately means very little. Can anyone tell me the last team to finish in the top 5 in rush defense to WIN the Super Bowl? It was the Bucs in '03. Before that it's the Ravens in '01. Its an overrated stat that means little in the big picture.

3. Now, I don't entirely agree with your issues with our linebackers. I think they are very good at what they are meant to be doing. Our defense is designed to be playing with a 2+ score lead. Our LB's are very fast and very good at coverage. Gary Brackett is the poster child for this. They are not overly big, and cannot stand up to big offensive lines that pound the ball at them. In a perfect world we would be playing with a lead the entire game and teams will have to eventually abandon the run to keep up. This doesn't always happen, but that is not necessarily our LB's fault.

4. To have the best secondary in the NFL you have to have them as a group for more than 5 games a year.
I would take a solid group like that in Washington or Chicago that play 13+ games a season together. If they were there the whole time, I 100% agree with them being the best, but how much good does being the best for 4 games do you?

5. I agree with you and I completely echo Shane's comment on thanking you for putting at least some of the blame on Peyton's shoulders. While I agree that Dungy is little more than solid as an actual coach, those 2 pass plays (which I complained about at the time as I'm sure you all did)
are all on Peyton. He makes all the calls. Moore does little more than give him options. That was on 18's shoulders. I guess you take the good with the bad.

I can honestly say that I am worried about the Colts this year. I think we will get physically beat up in both games against Tennessee and we still have to go to Jacksonville as well. I don't know if I see us winning any of those games. There are also games against the Ravens in Pittsburgh and @ SD left as well. I really can't see THIS current Colts team (as it is playing) losing less than 4 of those which makes 10-6 the best we can do, and I am not sure if that'll make the playoffs this year. I hope I'm wrong, but John-O you know, I'm usually not about things like this.

OK, sorry that was so long. I'll be home T-giving week again, and J moved to Charlotte (long story I'll tell you when I'm up there) so I'll see you soon for ample porch chatting.

Prime Mover said...

Good post John-O.

I don't think Peyton changing the plays at the line of scrimmage lost the game for us because on third down Addai punched it in. He probably would have done that on first down, well, I'm speculating but either way there was too much time for J-Ville to get down the field to let that capri sun drinking orange slice eating soccer player Josh Scobee to win it.

As for 2006 we certainly did stink at run defense but who knew that Bob Sanders would make that much of an impact for us after he came back from injury? We shut down all opposing team's running game in the playoffs that year, something we could not do in the regular season. I think Dungy did a great job that year preparing for the playoffs, unlike every other year he has been the Colts coach. I don't necessarily think that they lucked themselves into the Super Bowl, yeah, a little luck always finds it's way to any super bowl team (see 2005 Steelers, 1980 Raiders, 2007 Giants) but they really had their shit together that post season, mentally and physically. Speaking of Dungy...

Troy,

Remember that before Dungy's arrival at Tampa, they really fucking sucked. They were the doormats of the NFL for roughly 20 years at that point and Dungy turned that team into winners. Gruden was the one that lucked himself into that position to win the super bowl with Dungy's defense and players (and coaching against a team he managed just one year earlier, how lucky is that?). Gruden has struggled to duplicate that success since. And I don't know how you can luck yourself into a downward spiraling 6-10 Colt team but there is no doubt that installing the cover 2 turned the Colts around and eventually into super bowl winners. If it wasn't for the Patriots ( I know, would have should have could have, blah blah blah) we could have won more. Besides, Dungy has a ring something that a great coach like Jeff Fisher does not have (who would have not reached the super bowl in 2000 without the Music City Miracle). I think he's a great coach, you cannot deny that he has had success wherever he's been. This year though? It seems he has one foot in retirement.

John Peddie said...

"Dungy turned that team into winners..."

Dungy and a pretty solid influx of talent from the draft from 1995-1997, including two first-round picks in 95 by the names of Warren Sapp and Derrick Brooks. The next two years brought them Mike Alstott and Warrick Dunn, creating perhaps the most mystifying group of runningbacks ever.

Dungy is a good coach; his Tampa 2 defense is a good scheme, and he runs it very well; but his conservative coaching style has limits. He was able to take the Bucs only so far, and he has taken the Colts only so far.

Yes, to the Super Bowl, but what if the Colts had had to go to San Diego to play the AFC title game? The Patriots beating the Chargers that year was huge. It also helped the Colts that their Super Bowl opponent was one of the worst NFC champions ever.

Prime Mover said...

Having talent helps, even the best coaches need talent to run their schemes and win. You think Belicheck misses Brady just a little?

"but what if the Colts had had to go to San Diego to play the AFC title game?"

The Colts did have to go on the road that year and beat Baltimore who had, I believe, the #1 rated defense and a thumping running back.

"The Patriots beating the Chargers that year was huge."

I believe the Pats were our achilles heal and have beaten the Colts in every playoff game before that year, I wasn't feeling too lucky about facing them that year I was sure we would get beat again. Plus were talking about Marty "the gleam" Schottenheimer the man who has never made it to a super bowl and has always tanked in the playoffs with very talented teams.

"worst NFC champions ever"

In terms of a quarterback I agree, but they were the #1 ranked team that year in the NFC.

Last King of SCOOTland said...

I must say that I agree with Prime Mover on the Pats vs. Chargers idea. I'd rather go to San Diego every day of the week and twice on Sunday than play New England any time. Remember, that is still the ONLY time that the Colts have beaten the Pats in a meaningful game.

And as for the Bears, why so mean? Yes Grossman was bad, but he had very good moments. Remove him from the equation and you have a top 5 defense, the best special teams, HANDS DOWN, in football, and a 1300+ (I so wanted to be able to say 1400 yards, but the stats don't allow it) yard rusher. What else was bad on that Bears team? That Bears team was better than the Seahawks in '06, The Giants in '01, the Panthers in '04, and I'd take 'em against the Eagles in '05, and that just since 2000. I know you hate Grossman, but you can't bash the Bears just because of that. They were a dominant team that year, in spite of a iffy (at best) quarterback. They had to win in spite of him many times. If he makes 2 plays, just 2, at any point (oh, and doesn't throw that pick to Hayden), the Bears have a shot to win that game. And remember, they beat (and rather handily) the team with the "best" quarterback in the NFC that year in New Orleans. It takes a very good team to win when your biggest weakness is your most important player. You are too harsh on them. Makes me sad. HAH!

troy myers said...

monte kiffin's tampa 2...he's still there and they still run it better than we do, even with whack ass ronde barber.

plus gruden pretty much completely survived a rebuilding effort by consistently guiding crap teams and even crapper quarterbacks(chris simms!) to the playoffs. he made rich gannon an mvp and he might be the best coach ever, not just the best coach today.

jeff fisher rules. no talent ever graced a titans roster until chris johnson.

Prime Mover said...

"jeff fisher rules. no talent ever graced a titans roster until chris johnson."

Yeah, Eddie George, Steve McNair, Bruce Mathews (HOF), Samari Rolle, Frank Wycheck (pro bowler x3) and some guy named Javon Kearse they all kind of sucked didn't they? Listen, I like Fisher, I really do, I think he's a great coach but I don't think he's better than our boy Dungy. Fisher has had multiple (3) subpar 500 seasons and 1 500 season after 2000 something that Dungy has never had since 2002 (and only had 2 with his tenure in Tampa). And Fisher, like Dungy, has bowed out in the playoffs with good teams.

As for Gruden? Dungy has had to survive numerous roster changes also. We lost the Edge, Marvin Harrison last year (still went what, 12-4?) and numerous turnover on the defensive side with injuries, rookies and losing players to free agency. The only healthy mainstay has been Manning, Dallas Clark and Saturday (until this year). So I think Dungy has done a great job with the talent that he has. I agree that Gruden is a great coach, I don't think he's the best ever though. Lombardi, Walsh, Landry, Knoll might have trouble with that.

John-O,

I definatley agree with your frustration with Dungy in the playoffs, he does get really conservative at times, well, almost all the time. I was just pissed after the Charger game last year where we were out coached by freaking Norv Turner and were beaten by back ups. But I have stop myself from criticizing him too much just because he has had great success.

Nice Bears breakdown Scoot.

troy myers said...

mcnair(no accuracy), george(no speed burst), and matthews(average feet) were huge, hulking specimens that got by on mariginal talent by being physical.

samari rolle merely needed to be put beside chris mcallister to prove what an easy target he is to throw on. and jevon kearse had speed for one season before everyone realized that if you rough him up he is easily neutralized.

wychek made a career out of the fact that mcnair couldn't locate a downfield reciever(see alge crumpler&mike vick)

all these guys excelled because fisher is a great in-game strategist who puts his players in the right positions to succeed.

dungy can't even keep keiaho or sessions in their assigned positions, much less in ones in which they can succeed.

and he is a defensive mastermind?

marchibroda or mora(hell even bob lamey) could have two or three rings by now with the colts talent.

Last King of SCOOTland said...

Whose stats are these:

73 catches, 1128 yards, 9 TD's
79 catches, 1012 yards, 5 TD's
95 catches, 1303 yards, 8 TD's
96 catches, 1168 yards, 7 TD's

Anyone? Those are the stats of Derrick Mason. Now, while I agree with Troy in that I would rather have Jeff Fischer than Tony Dungy (for my money, he's the best coach in the NFL), and that I do not think Steve McNair was as good as many "experts" do, he did do pretty well with Mason as a "down field receiver". Wychek was a very good tight end because he was a very good tight end. He was every bit as solid as Dallas Clark is.

Also, it seems a big silly to say that a man with a Heisman Trophy, an NFL Rookie of the Year award, 10,000 career rushing yards, and 80 career TD's marginally talented. While I agree Eddie George was not the fastest man ever, I would remind you that the top 2 rushers in history (Payton and Emmitt) were never speed guys either. Eddie George was a great back for 8 years. You can't just dismiss him, especially when you mention Chris Johnson as the ONLY Titan with talent. He's done exactly what so far?

And I do agree that there are other coaches that might have won more than Dungy here. You need to be more aggressive in the playoffs, not less, which seems to be a memo that Tony has not gotten. But, you could do a lot worse. Marvin Lewis, Denny Green, or anyone Matt Millen would ever hire would be much, MUCH worse. Oh, and BTW, Mora did, for the most part, have this talent, at least the key parts, and he lost to those untalented Titans.

Godfather Weilhammer said...

Hey, the Titans also had a little known champ that none of you ever mentioned...and how dare you for missing punter Craig Hentrich, whose 47.2 yards per punt average led the NFL in 1998. And you people call yourselves football fans. For shame.